Actualités > Doctoral thesis (PhD) Building resilience - Development of risk assessment methods and heat wave adaptation strategies
Scientific supervision : LaSIE (Laboratory of Engineering Sciences for the Environment), La Rochelle University, France
– Emmanuel BOZONNET - ebozonne@univ-lr.fr
– Jérôme LE DREAU - jledreau@univ-lr.fr
– Emilio BASTIDAS ARTEAGA - ebastida@univ-lr.fr
– Marie DUQUESNE - marie.duquesne@univ-lr.fr
Type of contract : 36 month doctoral contract
Indicative monthly remuneration :
• From 2025 : €2,200 gross per month (estimated €1,760 net per month)
• From 2026 : €2,300 gross per month (estimated €1,840 net per month)
Start of contract : applications processed on a rolling basis (desired start date : 1st September 2025)
Keywords
Heat waves ; Heat waves Risks ; Resilience ; Buildings ; Occupants ; Socio-economic context ; Thermal stress ; Dynamic thermal simulation ; Data analysis : Probabilistic methods
Context
The aim of the RISK’adapt project is to develop a method for assessing the health risk and fuel poverty of urban populations during summer heat waves. The results will be used to assess the proportion of the population facing a high risk in the coming years, as well as the mitigation capacities of cities and buildings. The risk is both health-related (threshold and duration of exposure) and economic (situations of precariousness), and one cannot be separated from the other. Different resilience solutions (individual and collective) will also be compared.
The RISK’adapt project mainly proposes methodological developments, the innovative aspects of which are as follows :
• The development of a method for analysing risk on a population scale (representative archetype of a town, capturing the diversity of buildings and its population).
• Dynamic assessment (over the next 30 years and according to different climate and economic scenarios).
• Multi-disciplinary assessment : engineering (thermal modelling of buildings) and socio-economic (vulnerability of populations, ability of populations to invest).
Thesis topic and objectives
The scientific challenges identified relate to both numerical tools (Python language) and methods. Risk analysis is already well established in the structural assessment of buildings, but not yet in the thermal/energetics field. Current studies focus on thermal discomfort (temperatures below 30°C) rather than on extreme events leading to thermal risk (temperatures above 30°C). In addition, the risk of heatwaves is assessed on the basis of outdoor conditions, without taking into account the actual exposure of people (partly in buildings, partly outdoors). Tools will therefore have to be developed to represent the thermal conditions experienced by a population and also to model the dynamics of equipment and use of active cooling systems in relation to heatwave episodes. Finally, a health risk assessment method will be developed that takes into account climatic and economic changes. Risk thresholds will be defined.
The work required is based around the following 3 main areas :
• Structuring data and developing socio-technical and energy models ;
• Development of a methodology for analyzing health, economic and environmental risks according to climate change scenarios ;
• Evaluation of different resilience solutions (individual and collective).
Among the methods envisaged to respond to the scientific problems, we can cite :
• Analysis of climatic data (e.g. EUROCORDEX), socio-economic data (e.g. INSEE) and health data (e.g. GEODES), to produce statistical descriptions, identify influential parameters, propose classifications, etc.
• Dynamic thermal modelling of buildings, with archetype representation for scaling purposes
• Modelling heat stress in humans using thermophysiological models
• Probabilistic modelling of health risk over long time horizons (2060)
Lastly, the project should be part of a cross-disciplinary approach to promoting the work, in conjunction with projects and data on the La Rochelle conurbation, and elements of comparison with other climates, urban typologies and populations. In addition, exchanges with the IEA Annex 97 working group ("Sustainable Cooling in Cities") are planned.
Profile and skills required
• Science and technology student (engineering school/master 2/master of science) - a specialty in civil engineering, energy and/or statistics would be a plus ;
• Mastery of scientific programming and an interest in computing are required (e.g. Python or Matlab) ;
• Knowledge of statistical and thermal analysis of buildings would be a plus ;
• Knowledge of a dynamic thermal simulation tool (e.g. TRNSYS, EnergyPlus) will be a plus ;
• Initiative, project teamwork, adaptability and good interpersonal skills.
Working context
The successful candidate will be based at LaSIE (Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Ingénieur pour l’Environnement), a joint CNRS-La Rochelle University research unit (UMR 7356). The unit brings together a broad spectrum of skills, with integrated approaches ranging from the atomic scale to materials, buildings and their environment on different time and space scales. It will be integrated into the Buildings and Sustainable Cities (BVD) and Transfers, Degradation and Valorisation of Materials (TDVM) research teams of the LaSIE Laboratory.
Apply at
Send a CV + covering letter + transcript of marks for the last 2 years (even if incomplete for this year) and, if possible, a letter of recommendation (or referee) to :
• Emmanuel BOZONNET - ebozonne@univ-lr.fr
• Jérôme LE DREAU - jledreau@univ-lr.fr
• Emilio BASTIDAS ARTEAGA - ebastida@univ-lr.fr
• Marie DUQUESNE - marie.duquesne@univ-lr.fr
References
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J.F. Clarke, Some effects of the urban structure on heat mortality, Environmental Research. 5 (1972) 93-104. https://doi.org/10/ckrqzf.
S. Hajat, R.S. Kovats, R.W. Atkinson, H. A., Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality : A review of the epidemiological evidence, Epidemiological Reviews (2002) 190-202.
A. Pyrgou, M. Santamouris, Probability Risk of Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality to Temperature, Gender, and Age Using GAM Regression Analysis, Climate. 8 (2020) 40. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli8030040.
S. Hajat, S. Vardoulakis, C. Heaviside, B. Eggen, Climate change effects on human health : projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. 68 (2014) 641-48. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2013-202449.
A. Machard, Towards mitigation and adaptation to climate change : Contribution to Building Design, These de doctorat, La Rochelle, 2021. https://www.theses.fr/2021LAROS020.
ADEME, La climatisation de confort dans les bâtiments résidentiels et tertiaires, 2021. https://librairie.ademe.fr/air-et-bruit/4745-la-climatisation-de-confort-dans-les-batiments-residentiels-et-tertiaires.html.